Category Archives: Space Weather

Rich’s propagation observations during the total solar eclipse

Many thanks to SWLing Post contributor, Rich Stahl, who writes:

In Ocean View NJ, our eclipse started at 2:08, 3:23 totality, and ended 4:35. We have a daytimer here on 1020, WWAC, at 1900 watts, and I was curious if KDKA, at 50kw, also on 1020, would have any presence during the event. I used my Tecsun PL330, on the internal ferrite antenna, and did a band scan 530-1710 every fifteen minutes to see what it would capture. From 2:15 up to the 3:45 scan, the radio captured between eight and ten signals per scan. Up to this point, the sun still had the D layer fully ionized. But after the mid point, the 4:00 scan had 19 captures, the 4:15 scan had 38, and the 4:30 scan had 36. The D layer had obviously de-ionized considerably. The very next scan, at 4:45, captures back down to 9. The sun was back in business. And never did I hear a peep out of KDKA.

Rich Stahl
WR3V
Ocean View, NJ

Thank you for sharing your findings, Rich! Perhaps others can comment with their observations as well.

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A large CME could bring G3-class geomagnetic storms

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Many thanks to SWLing Post contributor, Troy Riedel, who shares the following news from Spaceweather.com:

A BIG CME IS COMING: This morning’s X1-class solar flare hurled a bright CME toward Earth. NASA and NOAA models agree that the storm cloud should reach our planet by the early hours of March 25th. A direct hit could spark strong G3-class geomagnetic storms with mid-latitude auroras in the USA and Europe.

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar
Active                10/01/30
Minor storm           25/20/30
Moderate storm        25/30/20
Strong-Extreme storm  35/50/05

NOAA Kp index forecast 24 Mar - 26 Mar
             Mar 24    Mar 25    Mar 26
00-03UT        3.67      5.00      5.00      
03-06UT        4.67      6.67      4.00      
06-09UT        2.00      5.67      4.00      
09-12UT        1.00      5.00      3.67      
12-15UT        1.00      4.00      3.00      
15-18UT        2.67      3.00      2.33      
18-21UT        5.00      3.00      2.33      
21-00UT        5.67      4.00      3.33

Thanks for the tip, Troy!

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Solar Radiation Storms and Cannibal CMEs

Spaceweather.com

SOLAR RADIATION STORM–NOW: For the second time in less than a week, energetic solar protons are raining down on Earth’s upper atmosphere. Forecasters call this a “solar radiation storm.” Today’s storm (near category S2) is rich in “hard protons” wiith energies greater than 50 MeV. It is causing a shortwave radio blackout inside the Arctic Circle and speckling the cameras of some Earth-orbiting satellites.

The plot above shows storm data recorded by NOAA’s GOES-18 satellite in Earth orbit. Sensors on the satellite are counting energetic protons as they pass by en route to Earth. Triggered by an explosion near the sun’s southwestern limb (inset), this storm could last for another 24 hours.

IS A ‘CANNIBAL CME’ COMING? Since Feb. 7th, the sun has hurled multiple CMEs into space. A handful of them might hit Earth this week. A new NOAA forecast model shows at least three solar storm clouds approaching for strikes on Feb. 13th:

Click to play the animated forecast model

The closely-spaced arrival of these three CMEs could spark G1 (Minor) to G2-class (Moderate) geomagnetic storms with high-latitude auroras in northern Europe, Canada, and northern-tier US states from Maine to Washington.

There’s a chance the CMEs will pile up to form a Cannibal CME. This happens when one fast-moving CME sweeps up slower-moving CMEs in front of it. Cannibal CMEs typically contain strong shocks and enhanced magnetic fields that do a good job sparking geomagnetic storms. If such a pile-up occurs, the combined strike could cause a G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storm with auroras at mid-latitudes.

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X5-Class Solar Flare is the strongest of Solar Cycle 25

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Many thanks to SWLing Post contributor, Troy Riedel, who shares the following news from Spaceweather.com:

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH (G2): A CME launched into space by yesterday’s X5-class solar flare (see below) *does* have an Earth-directed component. According to a NASA model, it should strike our planet on Jan. 2nd. G2-class geomagnetic storms are possible when the CME arrives. CME impact alerts: SMS Text

MAJOR X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: Mere hours after emerging over the sun’s eastern limb on Dec. 31st, big sunspot AR3536 erupted, producing a major X5-class solar flare. NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash:

This is the strongest flare of Solar Cycle 25 (so far) and the most powerful eruption the sun has produced since the great storms of Sept. 2017.

Radiation from the flare has caused a deep shortwave radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean: blackout map. Mariners and ham radio operators may have noticed loss of signal at all frequencies below 30 MHz for more than 60 minutes after the flare’s peak (2155 UT).

Click here for more updates on Spaceweather.com.

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X2.8-Class Solar Flare: Strongest of this solar cycle

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Many thanks to SWLing Post Contributor, Troy Riedel, who shares the following news via Spaceweather.com:

(UPDATED) STRONGEST FLARE OF THE CURRENT SOLAR CYCLE:

Sunspot 3514 erupted on Dec. 14th (1702 UT), producing a strong X2.8-class solar flare. This is the strongest flare of Solar Cycle 25 (so far) and the most powerful eruption the sun has produced since the great storms of Sept. 2017. NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash:

Radiation from the flare has caused a deep shortwave radio blackout over the Americas: blackout map. Ham radio operators may have noticed loss of signal at all frequencies below 30 MHz for more than 30 minutes after the flare.

This explosion probably launched a fast-moving coronal mass ejection (CME) Soon after the blast, the US Air Force is reported a Type II solar radio burst, which typically comes from the leading edge of a CME. Based on the drift rate of the radio burst, the CME’s velocity could exceed 2100 km/s (4.7 million mph).

Confirmation: Newly-arriving images from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) show a lopsided halo CME:

Although this CME is not squarely aimed at Earth, it does appear to have an Earth-directed component. A glancing blow is likely on Dec. 17th. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text

Click here to stay up to date with all space weather events at Spaceweather.com.

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SolderSmoke: Super Solar Storms May Not Be So Rare

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Many thanks to SWLing Post contributor, Bill Meara who shares the following article from the SolderSmoke Podcast:

Super Solar Storms May Not Be So Rare

Yesterday’s Washington Post had a good story about large solar storms. We are all aware of the Carrington Event (September 1859) but there were others. The Japanese painting above depicts an event of February 4, 1872.

From the Washington Post article:

Around 11:30 p.m. on Feb. 4, 1872, the sky above Jacobabad suddenly brightened, as if a portal to heaven had opened. A passerby watched in amazement and terror, while a pet dog became motionless, then trembled. The godly glow morphed, from red to bright blue to deep violet, until morning.

Electric communication cables mysteriously glitched in the Mediterranean, around Lisbon and Gibraltar, London and India. Confused telegraph operators in Cairo reported issues in sending messages to Khartoum. One incoming message asked what was the big red glow on the horizon — a fire or a faraway explosion?

This of course reminded me of the event that I witnessed as a teenager in New York in 1972:

https://soldersmoke.blogspot.com/2009/09/carrington-flares-aurora-where-were-you.html

That post has resulted in a steady stream of comments, mostly from non-hams. Apparently people remember seeing the event, then search the web for clues as to what it was. Google brings them to that post on the SolderSmoke Daily News. The comments are usually along the lines of, “Wow! I saw it too!” Very cool.

Check out this article, the full SolderSmoke podcast, and much more on the SolderSmoke website!

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Multiple CMEs and “Almost” X-Class Flare Incoming

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Many thanks to SWLing Post contributor, Troy Riedel, who shares the following item from Spaceweather.com.

MULTIPLE CMEs ARE COMING: At least three CMEs are heading for Earth following a series of magnetic filament eruptions (#1, #2 & #3) earlier this week. Their collective arrival could spark G2-class geomagnetic storms with mid-latitude auroras on Nov. 30th and Dec. 1st. This forecast does not yet take into account a possible CME hurled toward us by today’s almost-X class solar flare. Keep reading!

ALMOST-X CLASS SOLAR FLARE: Sunspot AR3500 erupted on Nov. 28th (1950 UT), producing an M9.8-class solar flare–only percentage points below category X. NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the blast:

A pulse of extreme UV radiation blacked out shortwave radio communications across the South Pacific Ocean and parts of the Americas: map. Mariners and ham radio operators may have noticed loss of signal at frequencies below 20 MHz.

This explosion almost certainly hurled a CME toward Earth. Confirmation awaits fresh data from SOHO coronagraphs. Stay tuned.

Click here to check out this news and much more on Spaceweather.com!

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