Tag Archives: Space Weather

G-1 Geomagnetic Storm, Chance of a G-2 Storm 11-12 Sep

From Spaceweather.com:

“NOAA forecasters say there is an 80% chance of minor G1-class geomagnetic storms on Sept. 11th when a stream of solar wind is expected to hit Earth’s magnetic field … There’s a chance that the storm could intensify to category G2 (moderately strong).”

Image: Solar Wind flowing from this canyon shaped coronal hole could reach Earth on September 11 thru 12th. Credit: SDO/AIA from Spaceweather.com

Will this impact your radio plans over the next two days?  Go to Spaceweather.com for updates.

UPDATED 10:30 P.M. EDT:

I just received this update from the Forecast Center:

Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2018 Sep 11 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 11-Sep 13 2018 is 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 11-Sep 13 2018

            Sep 11     Sep 12     Sep 13
00-03UT        5 (G1)     4          3     
03-06UT        6 (G2)     5 (G1)     4     
06-09UT        5 (G1)     4          3     
09-12UT        4          3          2     
12-15UT        4          2          2     
15-18UT        3          2          2     
18-21UT        3          2          2     
21-00UT        4          2          2     

Rationale: The geomagnetic field will likely reach G2 (Moderate) levels
on day one( 11 Sep) as a result of a positive polarity CH HSS. Activity
is expected to taper some by day two (12 Sep), but G1 (Minor) storm
conditions are still likely. Day three (13 Sep) is expected to be a day
of transition, with G1 conditions becoming less likely.

Guest Post by Troy Riedel – career retired Veteran, educated Synoptic Meteorologist & an amateur astronomer hobbyist who likes to also “play shortwave”.

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Radio propagation may improve soon with region of solar flux

Many thanks to SWLing Post contributor, Mike Hansgen, who shares this latest Space Weather report from Tamitha Skov:

Space Weather jumps into action this week with two weak solar storms en route to Earth. NASA models predict they will hit starting July 9 and they could easily bring aurora to high latitudes, if not mid-latitudes. Amateur radio operators are also in for some fun as a new region rotates into view and brings with it a boost in solar flux, which will help radio propagation just in time for hurricane season. GPS users shouldn’t be affected by the low-level flaring of this region on Earth’s day side, but should stay vigilant near aurora and near the dawn-dusk terminators for glitches in their reception. Low-latitude GPS/GNSS reception might even improve under the influence of these weak solar storms. See details of the coming storms, when this new active region will be in view, catch up on aurora photos, and see what else is in store!

Click here to view on YouTube.

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Space Weather: A [big] Hole in the Sun’s Atmosphere

The SWLing Post Blog has recently featured a few posts on “Space Weather” & Geomagnetic Storms. As an amateur astronomer, I receive many daily space-related emails in my INBOX right along with the SWLing Post Daily Digest. I thought this might be of interest:

From Spaceweather.com

An unusually wide hole in the sun’s atmosphere is facing Earth and spewing a stream of solar wind toward our planet. Estimated time of arrival: April 9th. Polar geomagnetic unrest and minor G1-class storms are possible when the gaseous material reaches Earth. Visit Spaceweather.com for more information and updates.

Image credit: NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory.

The hole bisects half the solar disk, stretching more than 700,000 km from end to end. This means Earth will be under the influence of the emerging solar wind stream for more than 4 days after it arrives.

A G1-class storm is “Minor”, so I doubt there will be very much “radio” impact – but you gotta admit, a hole that large is interesting nonetheless!

Posted by SWLing Post Contributor Troy Riedel

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