Tag Archives: CME

Might be a good idea to protect your gear: Scientists believe the Carrington Event “was not unique”

Many thanks to SWLing Post contributor, Eric McFadden (WD8RIF), who shares the following story from Spaceweather.com (my comments follow):

On Sept. 1st, 1859, the most ferocious solar storm in recorded history engulfed our planet. It was “the Carrington Event,” named after British scientist Richard Carrington, who witnessed the flare that started it. The storm rocked Earth’s magnetic field, sparked auroras over Cuba, the Bahamas and Hawaii, set fire to telegraph stations, and wrote itself into history books as the Biggest. Solar. Storm. Ever.

But, sometimes, what you read in history books is wrong.

“The Carrington Event was not unique,” says Hisashi Hayakawa of Japan’s Nagoya University, whose recent study of solar storms has uncovered other events of comparable intensity. “While the Carrington Event has long been considered a once-in-a-century catastrophe, historical observations warn us that this may be something that occurs much more frequently.”

To generations of space weather forecasters who learned in school that the Carrington Event was one of a kind, these are unsettling thoughts. Modern technology is far more vulnerable to solar storms than 19th-century telegraphs. Think about GPS, the internet, and transcontinental power grids that can carry geomagnetic storm surges from coast to coast in a matter of minutes. A modern-day Carrington Event could cause widespread power outages along with disruptions to navigation, air travel, banking, and all forms of digital communication.

Many previous studies of solar superstorms leaned heavily on Western Hemisphere accounts, omitting data from the Eastern Hemisphere. This skewed perceptions of the Carrington Event, highlighting its importance while causing other superstorms to be overlooked.

[…]Hayakawa’s team has delved into the history of other storms as well, examining Japanese diaries, Chinese and Korean government records, archives of the Russian Central Observatory, and log-books from ships at sea–all helping to form a more complete picture of events.

They found that superstorms in February 1872 and May 1921 were also comparable to the Carrington Event, with similar magnetic amplitudes and widespread auroras. Two more storms are nipping at Carrington’s heels: The Quebec Blackout of March 13, 1989, and an unnamed storm on Sept. 25, 1909, were only a factor of ~2 less intense. (Check Table 1 of Hayakawa et al’s 2019 paper for details.)

“This is likely happening much more often than previously thought,” says Hayakawa.

Are we overdue for another Carrington Event? Maybe. In fact, we might have just missed one.

In July 2012, NASA and European spacecraft watched an extreme solar storm erupt from the sun and narrowly miss Earth. “If it had hit, we would still be picking up the pieces,” announced Daniel Baker of the University of Colorado at a NOAA Space Weather Workshop 2 years later. “It might have been stronger than the Carrington Event itself.”

History books, let the re-write begin.

Click here to read at Spaceweather.com.

With the way 2020 has gone so far, it might be wise to take a look at our EMP Primer which goes into detail about how to protect your radio gear from an EMP event like this. It’s not an expensive process, but requires advance preparation.

Click here to check out our EMP primer.

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1921 NY Railroad Storm could have surpassed intensity of 1859 Carrington Event

(Image: NASA)

(Source: Southgate ARC via Eric McFadden)

Scientific American magazine reports new data suggest the 1921 ‘New York Railroad Storm’ could have surpassed the intensity of the famous Carrington Event of 1859

In a paper published in the journal Space Weather, Jeffrey Love of the U.S. Geological Survey and his colleagues reexamined the intensity of the 1921 event, known as the New York Railroad Storm, in greater detail than ever before. Although different measures of intensity exist, geomagnetic storms are often rated on an index called disturbance storm time (Dst)—a way of gauging global magnetic activity by averaging out values for the strength of Earth’s magnetic field measured at multiple locations. Our planet’s baseline Dst level is about –20 nanoteslas (nT), with a “superstorm” condition defined as occurring when levels fall below –250 nT.

Studies of the very limited magnetic data from the Carrington Event peg its intensity at anywhere from –850 to –1,050 nT. According to Love’s study, the 1921 storm, however, came in at about –907 nT. “The 1921 storm could have been more intense than the 1859 storm,” Love says. “Prior to our paper, [the 1921 storm] was understood to be intense, but how intense wasn’t really clear.”

Read the full story at
https://www.scientificamerican
.com/article/new-studies-warn-of-cataclysmic-solar-superstorms/

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Video: CME’s and Solar Energetic Particles

Many thanks to SWLing Post contributor, TomL, who writes:

Regarding the last couple of posts recently about what affects Space Weather (and HF radio communications), this talk last week from Solar scientist Joan Burkepile of the High Altitude Observatory discusses what causes Radiation storms from Coronal Mass Ejections. She makes it interesting from a physics point of view. And as we understand the sun better, we also learn more about how the rest of the universe behaves.

Click here to watch via YouTube.

Thanks for sharing this, Tom!

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The 1770 solar storm that turned the skies red for a week

(Source: Wired UK via Mark Hirst)

Records kept by people living in Korea, China and Japan in 1770 have revealed evidence for the longest geomagnetic storm in recorded history

Almost 250 years ago, for over two weeks, the skies above parts of Asia lit up in what looked like a burst of fiery red. Those who saw the strange phenomenon kept notes of the event, and now it has been identified as potentially the longest geomagnetic storm ever recorded.

A dim red sky reported to have been observed between the September 16 to 18, 1770 in East Asia was considered one of history’s greatest geomagnetic storms. But now, new materials have come to light suggesting the storm lasted much longer, for nine nights, and covered an area twice as large as originally thought.

A group of Japanese scientists led by Hisashi Hayakawa from Osaka University studied hundreds of historical records dating between September and October 1770, including government records and people’s personal diaries. Using these records, they were able to piece together what happened during the event, and link this to sunspot drawings from the time.[…]

Continue reading at the Wired UK website.

Thanks for the tip, Mark–fascinating!

Of course, I’ve read in-depth information about the Carrington Event, but was completely unaware of the 1770 event.  I’ve always said the biggest EMP threat will come from our local star. Frankly, it’s just a matter of time.  I hope we’re ready!

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Last week, Earth dodged a powerful X-Class solar flare

Many thanks to SWLing Post contributor, Michael Guerin, who shares this article at CNN by Dr. Don Lincoln, a senior physicist at Fermilab and researcher at the Large Hadron Collider:

Earth dodges a cosmic bullet — for now

Solar flares and related phenomena could cause tremendous damage to the Earth’s electric grids, writes Don Lincoln Read the full story

(CNN) Mother Nature has had a hectic past couple of weeks of hurricanes, an earthquake, wildfires and flooding. But while our attention has been turned to these humanitarian crises, Earth ducked a cosmic bullet the likes of which could have crippled human technological civilization.

Over the last week or so, the sun has experienced a series of solar flares, including the most energetic one in a decade. A solar flare occurs when magnetic energy in the vicinity of a sunspot is released, resulting in a bright spot on the sun that takes place over a time scale of perhaps 10 minutes — or even less.

[…]While solar flares can interfere with satellites, an even more dangerous phenomenon is called a coronal mass ejection (or CME). CMEs often accompany a flare and occur when some of the sun’s highly ionized material is ejected into space. Because a CME consists of matter and not the electromagnetic radiation of a flare, it can take a day or even more to travel from the sun to the Earth. Indeed, last week’s flares were accompanied by a CME, but it didn’t hit the Earth with its full fury.

If a CME happens to be aimed directly at Earth, the ionized particles can slam into the magnetic field that surrounds the Earth and distort its shape, a process called a geomagnetic storm. That’s when things can get dangerous. Moving magnetic fields can induce electrical currents on the Earth’s surface and damage equipment.

In 1989, a CME hit the Earth and knocked out power in Quebec and the northeast United States for nine hours. And in 1859, an enormous CME hit the Earth. Called the Carrington Event, after Richard Carrington, who observed and recorded it, this geomagnetic storm caused telegraph pylons and railroad rails to spark, shocked telegraph operators and was responsible for auroras visible at least as far south as Havana, Cuba, with some claims of auroras being observed near the Earth’s equator.

[…]A report by Lloyd’s of London in 2013 estimated that the damage to the US grid from a repeat of the Carrington Event would be in the range of $0.6-$2.3 trillion dollars and would require four to 10 years to repair.

“The total U.S. population at risk of extended power outage from a Carrington-level storm is between 20-40 million, with durations of 16 days to 1-2 years,” the Lloyd’s report said.[…]

Read this full article at CNN…

Many thanks as well to Mike Hansgen (K8RAT) who also shares the latest space weather news from Tamitha Skov, reiterating how fortunate we were to miss this last barrage from our local star:

Click here to watch on YouTube.

EMP article incoming…

One additional note: I’m currently in the process of writing a lengthy article about how to protect your gear from an EMP (Electromagnetic Pulse) emanating from an event like this. In the past two weeks, I’ve had an uptick in inquiries about this, so I thought it best to consult an expert and produce a post. I’ll hopefully have this article published within a week or so. I’ll post it with the tag: EMP.

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HF Radio blackouts in wake of solar flares

(Image Source: NASA)

(Source: ARRL via Mike Terry)

NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) has issued a strong (G3) geomagnetic storm watch for September 7 through September 9. The SWPC said the watch for September 7 remains in effect due to the arrival of a coronal mass ejection (CME) and the effects of a CME on September 4.

“Additionally, a G3 watch is now in effect for the 8 and 9 September UTC days in anticipation of the arrival of another CME associated with the X9.3 flare (R3 — strong radio blackout) on 6 September at 1202 UTC (0802 ET),” the SWPC said early on September 7. “Analysis indicates likely CME arrival late on 8 September into early 9 September.” The September 6 flare is being called the strongest in more than a decade.

Its effect on HF radio propagation has adversely affected the Hurricane Watch Net (HWN), currently operating on 20 and 40 meters as Hurricane Irma sweeps through the Caribbean.
As of September 7 at 1400 UTC, the solar flux index stood at 127, the sunspot number at 27, the A index at 11, and the K index at 4. All HF conditions are being deemed as no better than fair. The possibility of extended auroral displays could work to the benefit of VHF and UHF operators who aim their antennas north to take advantage of “buzz” mode. SWPC posts a 30-minute forecast of visible aurora.[…]

Click here to read the full article at the ARRL.

Also, check out Tamitha Skov’s forecast on YouTube:

Last night, I tested a couple of HF radios and all but the strongest shortwave broadcasters (WRMI, RHC) were wiped out. Even the strong stations sounded like weak DX. This is truly an HF blackout.

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Space Weather Woman: Check out Dr. Tamitha Skov’s forecasts

Many thanks to SWLing Post contributor, Eric McFadden (WD8RIF), who recently shared one of Tamitha Skov’s space weather forecast videos.

Over the past few years, I’ve watched Dr. Skov’s weekly video forecasts to better understand the implications of incoming CMEs, solar winds, sun spots (or lack thereof) and geomagnetic storms. While her videos include a lot of technical details, they’re also much easier to understand than the typical propagation forecast. Plus, her videos they’re chock-full of solar imagery and animations.

This weekend, for example, we’re going to experience some disruptions to HF propagation. Yesterday, solar wind speed soared to 704–and at time of publishing this post it’s 721 km/sec (thanks for noting, Mike!).

Dr. Skov explains it all in her latest space weather video:

Click here to view on YouTube.

Click here to view and subscribe to Tamitha Skov’s YouTube channel, and click here to check out her website.

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