Many thanks to SWLing Post contributor, Mike (K8RAT), who writes:
The Met Office has this brief introduction to the subject of space weather and the methods they use to make predictions. It may be useful to beginners in the radio hobby.
This download is found on The Met Office’s forecast page:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/They are not giving us any good news regarding the next couple of days on HF.