“NOAA forecasters say there is an 80% chance of minor G1-class geomagnetic storms on Sept. 11th when a stream of solar wind is expected to hit Earth’s magnetic field … There’s a chance that the storm could intensify to category G2 (moderately strong).”
Image: Solar Wind flowing from this canyon shaped coronal hole could reach Earth on September 11 thru 12th. Credit: SDO/AIA from Spaceweather.com
Will this impact your radio plans over the next two days? Go to Spaceweather.com for updates.
UPDATED 10:30 P.M. EDT:
I just received this update from the Forecast Center:
Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2018 Sep 11 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 11-Sep 13 2018 is 6 (NOAA Scale
NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 11-Sep 13 2018
Sep 11 Sep 12 Sep 13
00-03UT 5 (G1) 4 3
03-06UT 6 (G2) 5 (G1) 4
06-09UT 5 (G1) 4 3
09-12UT 4 3 2
12-15UT 4 2 2
15-18UT 3 2 2
18-21UT 3 2 2
21-00UT 4 2 2
Rationale: The geomagnetic field will likely reach G2 (Moderate) levels
on day one( 11 Sep) as a result of a positive polarity CH HSS. Activity
is expected to taper some by day two (12 Sep), but G1 (Minor) storm
conditions are still likely. Day three (13 Sep) is expected to be a day
of transition, with G1 conditions becoming less likely.
Guest Post by Troy Riedel – career retired Veteran, educated Synoptic Meteorologist & an amateur astronomer hobbyist who likes to also “play shortwave”.
Many thanks to SWLing Post contributor, Mike (K8RAT), who writes:
The Met Office has this brief introduction to the subject of space weather and the methods they use to make predictions. It may be useful to beginners in the radio hobby.
This download is found on The Met Office’s forecast page:
They are not giving us any good news regarding the next couple of days on HF.
Click here to download the Met Office guide: “Space Weather: Find out more about how we forecast space weather” (PDF).
Great news for those of you who listen to space weather forecasts on WWV, from Fort Collins, Colorado or WWVH from Hawaii. It appears that NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center is going to continue announcing Geo-Alert products for the foreseeable future. The announcement from NOAA:
SWPC is no longer planning to discontinue the broadcast of its synoptic Geo-Alert products on the WWV and WWVH radio stations. SWPC plans to continue this service for the foreseeable future.
Additionally, updates to the content of this product are underway as a result of the feedback process. For example, in addition to providing the current, daily solar flux at 2800 MHz, we are evaluating adding more frequent observations at 2695MHz. Other improvements to the message content will also be evaluated. Stay tuned to this site for the latest status on these updates.
For additional comments or questions, please email us at email@example.com.
I believe feedback from the online survey has had a positive impact on this decision. The survey is still online–I urge you to participate and let NIST know what features you like in broadcasts.