Tag Archives: Space Weather

Auroras, HF Predictions, and More: A Look at Australia’s Space Weather Site

Many thanks to SWLing Post contributor Jerome van der Linden, who writes:

For some time, I have subscribed to a service that alerts me via email when our weather bureau wants to inform people about the likelihood of aurora activity that might lead to the ability to observe the southern hemisphere auroras, such this example:

SUBJ: ASWFC AURORA OUTLOOK

ISSUED AT 0627 UT ON 31 May 2025

FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE

A halo CME is expected to impact Earth on 01-Jun at 2100UT +/- 8 hours. This impact is expected to produce auroral activity on 01-02 Jun, with a chance of continued activity on 03-Jun. Warnings and/or alerts will follow if significant geomagnetic activity occurs.

Quite recently, I discovered that the Bureau of Meteorology (“the BOM”) in Australia has, as part of its www.bom.gov.au website, an Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre: https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/. It has a number of interesting headings (with links) that may be of interest to others in the SW hobby, such as “Solar”;”HF Systems”, and “Products and Services”. With the respect to the last, it would appear that a number of organisations subscribe to services provided by the BOM, including Australian airlines. In addition it seems even Stockholm Radio subscribes to some of the services, and an example of hour by hour HF frequency area prediction is shown in these graphs:

There’s far too much for me to review on this website, so I suggest interested SWLers may care to have a look for themselves, as there’s a lot of information there, which is updated regularly.

A New Eye on the Sun: CCOR-1 and the Future of Solar Weather Monitoring

Many thanks to SWLing Post contributor, Jake Brodsky (AB3A), who writes:

One of the key instruments for predicting when solar weather events will
arrive here at Earth is the Chronograph. And one of the most widely used
Coronagraphs is the LASCO instrument onboard the SOHO spacecraft at
Lagrange Point 1 (L1). This is a place where the spacecraft orbits L1 in
a halo fashion, just like the James Webb Space Telescope at L2. The
advantage of L1 is that it gets a mostly uninterrupted view of the sun.

SOHO was designed for a two year mission. And here we are nearly 30
years later and the spacecraft is still working. However, the solar
panels have degraded over that time, the gyros are no longer working,
and though the spacecraft has lots of fuel, it is running on borrowed time.

The older LASCO C2 and C3 coronagraph images are amazing, considering
that they’re 30 year old technology. Still, after 30 years we can do
better.

Enter CCOR, or the Compact Coronagraph. The scientists at Naval Research
Lab decided to see what they could do to improve on LASCO. The result
was CCOR-1. CCOR-1 was launched on GOES-U which, upon arriving on
station in Geostationary Orbit, became GOES 19.

Since it arrived on station last July, I’ve been waiting patiently for
the images from the new coronagraph to become available. It’s taken some
time and it won’t be officially available until April. However, you can
see what it looks like under the “experimental” instruments on NOAA’s
web page.

See https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ccor-1-coronagraph-experimental

Unlike the LASCO instrument onboard SOHO at L1, Geostationary orbit
doesn’t offer an uninterrupted view of the sun. Often you’ll see the
moon photobombing its way through the image. And there are times when
the Earth may block the view of the sun. However, CCOR-1 reports
reliably every 15 minutes, whereas LASCO images can be delayed for many
hours until the SOHO spacecraft antenna points back at Earth.

When the CCOR-1 data is ready for scientific use, it will become an
important backup for the aging SOHO spacecraft. Also note that NOAA is
planning to launch a new replacement for SOHO at L1 called the Space
Weather Follow On to L1 or SWFO.

Solar weather is critical for many uses, besides just shortwave radio.
These include predicting degraded GPS accuracy, Satellite Operations,
Power Grid Operations, and in extreme cases, even alerting pilots of
excessive radiation risks when flying in the vicinity of the North and
South poles.

Have a look at the CCOR-1 images. It is much better at illuminating the
corona of the Sun, though it does have limitations based upon where it
is located.

73,

Jake Brodsky,
Amateur Radio Station AB3A

Solar Ham Logo

Solar Ham Website News

A website I have used (and supported) regularly for the last 18 years is currently off-line, taking, according to the site’s founder, “an extended break” for the foreseeable future. The SolarHam.com site, operated by Kevin Gibeau, VE3EN, has been an amazing resource for solar weather news for amateur radio folks, astronomers, and, I suspect, hobbyists and professionals from many fields.

I, like many others, will miss the site, and wish Kevin well, and look for his (hopefully soon!) return.

Here is the note posted today on the Solar Ham Space Weather Website:

After 19 years SolarHam will be taking an extended break. The current world events and life in general has made me want to refocus my attention on what matters most, my daughter, my family and my health. Thank you all for the support over the past two decades, I really cannot thank you enough. Space Weather will always remain a passion of mine, but as of right now my heart is not fully committed and that is not fair to you my followers. I hope to return once I feel well enough. Sorry for the sudden departure and I hope you understand.
Kevin (SolarHam).

Robert, K4PKM

Spaceweather.com: Sunspot “visually rivals Carrington’s famous sunspot”

Many thanks to SWLing Post contributor, Troy Riedel, who shares the following news via Spaceweather.com:

Above: Carrington’s sunspot (to scale) compared to today’s giant sunspot AR3664.

HUGE SUNSPOT HURLS CME TOWARD EARTH: A sunspot so large it visually rivals Carrington’s famous sunspot of 1859 hurled a CME toward Earth today. Don’t worry! A new Carrington Event is not in the offing. The incoming CME isn’t potent enough. However, this huge sunspot merits watching while Earth is in its strike zone. Full story @ Spaceweather.com.

CME impact alerts: Sign up for Space Weather Alerts to receive an instant text message when the CME arrives.

A large CME could bring G3-class geomagnetic storms

Many thanks to SWLing Post contributor, Troy Riedel, who shares the following news from Spaceweather.com:

A BIG CME IS COMING: This morning’s X1-class solar flare hurled a bright CME toward Earth. NASA and NOAA models agree that the storm cloud should reach our planet by the early hours of March 25th. A direct hit could spark strong G3-class geomagnetic storms with mid-latitude auroras in the USA and Europe.

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar
Active                10/01/30
Minor storm           25/20/30
Moderate storm        25/30/20
Strong-Extreme storm  35/50/05

NOAA Kp index forecast 24 Mar - 26 Mar
             Mar 24    Mar 25    Mar 26
00-03UT        3.67      5.00      5.00      
03-06UT        4.67      6.67      4.00      
06-09UT        2.00      5.67      4.00      
09-12UT        1.00      5.00      3.67      
12-15UT        1.00      4.00      3.00      
15-18UT        2.67      3.00      2.33      
18-21UT        5.00      3.00      2.33      
21-00UT        5.67      4.00      3.33

Thanks for the tip, Troy!

X5-Class Solar Flare is the strongest of Solar Cycle 25

Many thanks to SWLing Post contributor, Troy Riedel, who shares the following news from Spaceweather.com:

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH (G2): A CME launched into space by yesterday’s X5-class solar flare (see below) *does* have an Earth-directed component. According to a NASA model, it should strike our planet on Jan. 2nd. G2-class geomagnetic storms are possible when the CME arrives. CME impact alerts: SMS Text

MAJOR X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: Mere hours after emerging over the sun’s eastern limb on Dec. 31st, big sunspot AR3536 erupted, producing a major X5-class solar flare. NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash:

This is the strongest flare of Solar Cycle 25 (so far) and the most powerful eruption the sun has produced since the great storms of Sept. 2017.

Radiation from the flare has caused a deep shortwave radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean: blackout map. Mariners and ham radio operators may have noticed loss of signal at all frequencies below 30 MHz for more than 60 minutes after the flare’s peak (2155 UT).

Click here for more updates on Spaceweather.com.

X2.8-Class Solar Flare: Strongest of this solar cycle

Many thanks to SWLing Post Contributor, Troy Riedel, who shares the following news via Spaceweather.com:

(UPDATED) STRONGEST FLARE OF THE CURRENT SOLAR CYCLE:

Sunspot 3514 erupted on Dec. 14th (1702 UT), producing a strong X2.8-class solar flare. This is the strongest flare of Solar Cycle 25 (so far) and the most powerful eruption the sun has produced since the great storms of Sept. 2017. NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash:

Radiation from the flare has caused a deep shortwave radio blackout over the Americas: blackout map. Ham radio operators may have noticed loss of signal at all frequencies below 30 MHz for more than 30 minutes after the flare.

This explosion probably launched a fast-moving coronal mass ejection (CME) Soon after the blast, the US Air Force is reported a Type II solar radio burst, which typically comes from the leading edge of a CME. Based on the drift rate of the radio burst, the CME’s velocity could exceed 2100 km/s (4.7 million mph).

Confirmation: Newly-arriving images from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) show a lopsided halo CME:

Although this CME is not squarely aimed at Earth, it does appear to have an Earth-directed component. A glancing blow is likely on Dec. 17th. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text

Click here to stay up to date with all space weather events at Spaceweather.com.