Tag Archives: Troy Riedel

The Sun is Flaring (X and M Class )

Many thanks to SWLing Post contributor Troy Riedel, who shares the following news courtesy of the excellent SpaceWeather.com site:

THE SUN IS FLARING AGAIN: Sunspot AR3947 is sizzling with activity. Since yesterday it has produced three X-class solar flares and multiple strong M-flares. NOAA’s GOES-16 satellite recorded the extreme ultraviolet and X-ray flashes:

Each flare has produced a shortwave radio blackout on Earth. Almost all longitudes of our planet have experienced intermittent loss of signal below 20 MHz during local daylight hours. Long-distance propagation has been very unreliable.

Remarkably, no significant CMEs have emerged. For some reason, these explosions have not lifted much material out of the sun’s atmosphere. Future blasts may behave differently, however, and the activity shows no sign of abating as the sunspot turns toward Earth.

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Spaceweather.com: Sunspot “visually rivals Carrington’s famous sunspot”

Many thanks to SWLing Post contributor, Troy Riedel, who shares the following news via Spaceweather.com:

Above: Carrington’s sunspot (to scale) compared to today’s giant sunspot AR3664.

HUGE SUNSPOT HURLS CME TOWARD EARTH: A sunspot so large it visually rivals Carrington’s famous sunspot of 1859 hurled a CME toward Earth today. Don’t worry! A new Carrington Event is not in the offing. The incoming CME isn’t potent enough. However, this huge sunspot merits watching while Earth is in its strike zone. Full story @ Spaceweather.com.

CME impact alerts: Sign up for Space Weather Alerts to receive an instant text message when the CME arrives.

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A large CME could bring G3-class geomagnetic storms

Many thanks to SWLing Post contributor, Troy Riedel, who shares the following news from Spaceweather.com:

A BIG CME IS COMING: This morning’s X1-class solar flare hurled a bright CME toward Earth. NASA and NOAA models agree that the storm cloud should reach our planet by the early hours of March 25th. A direct hit could spark strong G3-class geomagnetic storms with mid-latitude auroras in the USA and Europe.

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar
Active                10/01/30
Minor storm           25/20/30
Moderate storm        25/30/20
Strong-Extreme storm  35/50/05

NOAA Kp index forecast 24 Mar - 26 Mar
             Mar 24    Mar 25    Mar 26
00-03UT        3.67      5.00      5.00      
03-06UT        4.67      6.67      4.00      
06-09UT        2.00      5.67      4.00      
09-12UT        1.00      5.00      3.67      
12-15UT        1.00      4.00      3.00      
15-18UT        2.67      3.00      2.33      
18-21UT        5.00      3.00      2.33      
21-00UT        5.67      4.00      3.33

Thanks for the tip, Troy!

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Solar Radiation Storms and Cannibal CMEs

Many thanks to SWLing Post contributor, Troy Riede, who shares the following news from Spaceweather.com:


Spaceweather.com

SOLAR RADIATION STORM–NOW: For the second time in less than a week, energetic solar protons are raining down on Earth’s upper atmosphere. Forecasters call this a “solar radiation storm.” Today’s storm (near category S2) is rich in “hard protons” wiith energies greater than 50 MeV. It is causing a shortwave radio blackout inside the Arctic Circle and speckling the cameras of some Earth-orbiting satellites.

The plot above shows storm data recorded by NOAA’s GOES-18 satellite in Earth orbit. Sensors on the satellite are counting energetic protons as they pass by en route to Earth. Triggered by an explosion near the sun’s southwestern limb (inset), this storm could last for another 24 hours.

IS A ‘CANNIBAL CME’ COMING? Since Feb. 7th, the sun has hurled multiple CMEs into space. A handful of them might hit Earth this week. A new NOAA forecast model shows at least three solar storm clouds approaching for strikes on Feb. 13th:

Click to play the animated forecast model

The closely-spaced arrival of these three CMEs could spark G1 (Minor) to G2-class (Moderate) geomagnetic storms with high-latitude auroras in northern Europe, Canada, and northern-tier US states from Maine to Washington.

There’s a chance the CMEs will pile up to form a Cannibal CME. This happens when one fast-moving CME sweeps up slower-moving CMEs in front of it. Cannibal CMEs typically contain strong shocks and enhanced magnetic fields that do a good job sparking geomagnetic storms. If such a pile-up occurs, the combined strike could cause a G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storm with auroras at mid-latitudes.

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X5-Class Solar Flare is the strongest of Solar Cycle 25

Many thanks to SWLing Post contributor, Troy Riedel, who shares the following news from Spaceweather.com:

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH (G2): A CME launched into space by yesterday’s X5-class solar flare (see below) *does* have an Earth-directed component. According to a NASA model, it should strike our planet on Jan. 2nd. G2-class geomagnetic storms are possible when the CME arrives. CME impact alerts: SMS Text

MAJOR X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: Mere hours after emerging over the sun’s eastern limb on Dec. 31st, big sunspot AR3536 erupted, producing a major X5-class solar flare. NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash:

This is the strongest flare of Solar Cycle 25 (so far) and the most powerful eruption the sun has produced since the great storms of Sept. 2017.

Radiation from the flare has caused a deep shortwave radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean: blackout map. Mariners and ham radio operators may have noticed loss of signal at all frequencies below 30 MHz for more than 60 minutes after the flare’s peak (2155 UT).

Click here for more updates on Spaceweather.com.

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X2.8-Class Solar Flare: Strongest of this solar cycle

Many thanks to SWLing Post Contributor, Troy Riedel, who shares the following news via Spaceweather.com:

(UPDATED) STRONGEST FLARE OF THE CURRENT SOLAR CYCLE:

Sunspot 3514 erupted on Dec. 14th (1702 UT), producing a strong X2.8-class solar flare. This is the strongest flare of Solar Cycle 25 (so far) and the most powerful eruption the sun has produced since the great storms of Sept. 2017. NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash:

Radiation from the flare has caused a deep shortwave radio blackout over the Americas: blackout map. Ham radio operators may have noticed loss of signal at all frequencies below 30 MHz for more than 30 minutes after the flare.

This explosion probably launched a fast-moving coronal mass ejection (CME) Soon after the blast, the US Air Force is reported a Type II solar radio burst, which typically comes from the leading edge of a CME. Based on the drift rate of the radio burst, the CME’s velocity could exceed 2100 km/s (4.7 million mph).

Confirmation: Newly-arriving images from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) show a lopsided halo CME:

Although this CME is not squarely aimed at Earth, it does appear to have an Earth-directed component. A glancing blow is likely on Dec. 17th. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text

Click here to stay up to date with all space weather events at Spaceweather.com.

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Multiple CMEs and “Almost” X-Class Flare Incoming

Many thanks to SWLing Post contributor, Troy Riedel, who shares the following item from Spaceweather.com.

MULTIPLE CMEs ARE COMING: At least three CMEs are heading for Earth following a series of magnetic filament eruptions (#1, #2 & #3) earlier this week. Their collective arrival could spark G2-class geomagnetic storms with mid-latitude auroras on Nov. 30th and Dec. 1st. This forecast does not yet take into account a possible CME hurled toward us by today’s almost-X class solar flare. Keep reading!

ALMOST-X CLASS SOLAR FLARE: Sunspot AR3500 erupted on Nov. 28th (1950 UT), producing an M9.8-class solar flare–only percentage points below category X. NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the blast:

A pulse of extreme UV radiation blacked out shortwave radio communications across the South Pacific Ocean and parts of the Americas: map. Mariners and ham radio operators may have noticed loss of signal at frequencies below 20 MHz.

This explosion almost certainly hurled a CME toward Earth. Confirmation awaits fresh data from SOHO coronagraphs. Stay tuned.

Click here to check out this news and much more on Spaceweather.com!

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