Category Archives: Space Weather

Multiple CMEs and “Almost” X-Class Flare Incoming

Many thanks to SWLing Post contributor, Troy Riedel, who shares the following item from Spaceweather.com.

MULTIPLE CMEs ARE COMING: At least three CMEs are heading for Earth following a series of magnetic filament eruptions (#1, #2 & #3) earlier this week. Their collective arrival could spark G2-class geomagnetic storms with mid-latitude auroras on Nov. 30th and Dec. 1st. This forecast does not yet take into account a possible CME hurled toward us by today’s almost-X class solar flare. Keep reading!

ALMOST-X CLASS SOLAR FLARE: Sunspot AR3500 erupted on Nov. 28th (1950 UT), producing an M9.8-class solar flare–only percentage points below category X. NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the blast:

A pulse of extreme UV radiation blacked out shortwave radio communications across the South Pacific Ocean and parts of the Americas: map. Mariners and ham radio operators may have noticed loss of signal at frequencies below 20 MHz.

This explosion almost certainly hurled a CME toward Earth. Confirmation awaits fresh data from SOHO coronagraphs. Stay tuned.

Click here to check out this news and much more on Spaceweather.com!

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The Halloween Storm of 2003

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Many thanks to SWLing Post contributor, Troy Riedel, who shares the following item from Spaceweather.com:

20 YEARS LATER, THE HALLOWEEN STORMS

A CME heading straight for Earth on Oct. 28, 2003. The source was an X17-flare in the magnetic canopy of giant sunspot 486. Image credit: SOHO. Movie

Imagine waking up to this headline: “Half of Earth’s Satellites Lost!” Impossible? It actually happened during the Great Halloween Storms of 2003.

Turn back the clock 20 years. Solar Cycle 23 was winding down, and space weather forecasters were talking about how quiet things would soon become. Suddenly, the sun unleashed two of the strongest solar flares of the Space Age–an X17 flare on Oct. 28 followed by an X10 on Oct 29, 2003. Both hurled fast CMEs directly toward Earth.

Traveling 2125 km/s and 1948 km/s, respectively, each CME reached Earth in less than a day, sparking extreme (G5) geomagnetic storms on Oct. 29, 30, and 31, 2003. Auroras descended as far south as Georgia, California, New Mexico, Arizona, Texas, and Oklahoma: photo gallery.

Onboard the International Space Station, astronauts took shelter in the hardened Zvezda service module to protect themselves from high energy particles. Meanwhile, airline pilots were frantically changing course. Almost every flight over Earth’s poles detoured to lower latitudes to avoid radiation, costing as much as $100,000 per flight. Many Earth-orbiting satellites experienced data outages, reboots and even unwanted thruster firings. Some operators simply gave up and turned their instruments off. [Continue reading at Spaceweather.com…]

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Spaceweather.com: “Radio Amateurs Hack a NASA Spacecraft” and Sunspot High for Cycle 25

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Many thanks to SWLing Post contributors, Troy Riedel and Jock Elliott, who share the following news items from Spaceweather.com:

RADIO AMATEURS HACK A NASA SPACECRAFT: Ham radio operators are picking up a strong signal from space. It’s NASA’s STEREO-A spacecraft returning home after 17 years.

“I’m having fun with STEREO-A,” reports Scott Tilley (VE7TIL) of Roberts Creek, British Columbia. “The spacecraft is coming close to Earth this summer, and I can now receive its signal using a small 26-inch dish in my backyard.” Here is what he picked up on July 2nd:

“We caught an X-flare in progress,” Tilley says. “Naked-eye sunspot AR3354 was really crackling.”

STEREO-A left Earth on Oct. 26, 2006, launched from Cape Canaveral with its sister ship STEREO-B. Both spacecraft were on a mission to the far side of the sun. Over the years, they would circle behind behind the sun, beaming images back to Earth so scientists could make 3D models of solar activity. In 2014, STEREO-B failed and was not heard from again. STEREO-A kept going, and now it is on its way back. [Continue reading at Spaceweather.com…]

Also…

SUNSPOT COUNTS HIT A 21-YEAR HIGH: The sun is partying like it’s 2002. That’s the last time sunspot counts were as high as they are now. The monthly average sunspot number for June 2023 was 163, according to the Royal Observatory of Belgium’s Solar Influences Data Analysis Center. This eclipses every month since Sept. 2022:

Solar Cycle 25 wasn’t expected to be this strong. When it began in Dec. 2019, forecasters believed it would be a weak cycle akin to its immediate predecessor Solar Cycle 24. If that forecast had panned out, Solar Cycle 25 would be one of the weakest solar cycles in a century.

Instead, Solar Cycle 25 has shot past Solar Cycle 24 and may be on pace to rival some of the stronger cycles of the 20th century. The last time sunspot numbers were this high, the sun was on the verge of launching the Great Halloween Storms of 2003, which included the strongest X-ray solar flare ever recorded (X45), auroras as far south as Texas, and a CME so powerful it was ultimately detected by the Voyager spacecraft at the edge of the solar system.

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Cycle 25 may peak sooner than expected

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This split image shows the difference between an active Sun during [a previous] solar maximum (on the left, captured in April 2014) and a quiet Sun during solar minimum (on the right, captured in December 2019). Credits: NASA/SDO

Many thanks to SWLing Post contributor, TomL, who shares the following news item:

Solar Cycle 25 May Peak Much Sooner Than Expected

“In April 2019, the Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel, which is made up of dozens of scientists from NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), released its forecast for Solar Cycle 25, suggesting that the solar maximum would likely begin sometime in 2025 and would be comparable in size to the maximum of Solar Cycle 24, which peaked unusually late between mid-2014 and early 2016 and was quite weak compared with past solar maximums.

But from the beginning, the forecast seemed off. For instance, the number of observed sunspots has been much higher than predicted.”

TomL notes:

To read the rest of the article go to web site link here:
https://www.livescience.com/space/the-sun/solar-maximum-could-hit-us-harder-and-sooner-than-we-thought-how-dangerous-will-the-suns-chaotic-peak-be

Not mentioned in the article are implications for a sooner-than-expected Peak may mean that the Peak will be about the same strength as Cycle 24 but with a shorter duration. It may also mean that the future Cycle 26 may be weaker than both 24 or 25, but that remains to be seen.

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Using Doppler Shift and Time Stations to Detect Solar Flares

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A WWV Time Code Generator (photo taken at WWV in Fort Collins, Colorado)

Many thanks to SWLing Post contributors, Troy Riedel and Jock Elliott, for sharing the following post from Spaceweather.com:

A NEW WAY TO DETECT SOLAR FLARES: Around the world, ham radio operators are experimenting with a new way to detect solar flares–the Doppler Shift method. Brian Curtis of Sault Ste Marie, Michigan, demonstrated the technique on June 20th when the sun produced a powerful X1.1-class solar flare:

Image by Brian Curtis

“I monitor the frequency and field strength of Canada’s CHU time station transmitting at 7850 KHz,” explains Curtis. “During the X-class flare event, I was able to detect the Doppler shift of the station’s carrier frequency (green plot). It shifted by 5 Hz, which is a small change, but very obvious!”

When radiation from a solar flare hits Earth’s atmosphere, it ionizes the air, temporarily boosting the thickness of our planet’s ionosphere. Any radio station skipping off the ionosphere will suddenly find its frequency Doppler shifted (because its reflection point is moving). Shortwave stations such as WWV, WWVH, and CHU transmit carriers with atomic-clock grade frequency stability, so they are perfect sources for Doppler monitoring.

Sudden changes in the ionosphere caused by flares or even sunrise/sunset can Doppler shift the frequency of stations like WWV. Image credit: Collins et al (2021) [Original image via HamSci and SpaceWeather.com]

“I have been monitoring radio stations for decades, noting sudden changes in signal strength as a means of monitoring space weather events,” says Curtis. “It is only fairly recently (~4 months) that I started to experiment with monitoring the Doppler shift of HF stations. The June 20th X-class flare event is by far the most dramatic that I have witnessed thus far.”

Would you like to detect solar flares this way? The HamSCI citizen science program has developed a Personal Space Weather Station specifically for Doppler shift measurements. This technique can also be used to study solar eclipses, earthquakes and tsunamis, and much more.

Click here to read the full story on Spaceweather.com, more on EOS.org and HamSCI.org.

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“Cannibal CME” to hit Earth during early hours of March 31, 2022

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Many thanks to SWLing Post contributor, Ed, who writes:

Readers of the SWLing Post blog might be interested in leaning that a “Cannibal CME” is approaching Earth. The Wikipedia page about the Carrington Event says it was probably 2 CME’s in rapid succession -like this description from SpaceWx of what’s coming:

Estimated time of arrival: March 31st

Space Weather News for March 29, 2022
https://spaceweather.com
https://www.spaceweatheralerts.com

A ‘CANNIBAL CME’ IS APPROACHING EARTH: A strong G3-class geomagnetic storm is possible later this week when a ‘Cannibal CME’ hits Earth’s magnetic field. It’s a ‘cannibal’ because it ate one of its own kind en route to our planet. The mash-up of two CMEs could spark naked-eye auroras visible from northern-tier US states. Full story @ Spaceweather.com ( https://spaceweather.com).

Thank you for the tip, Ed!

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Radio Waves: RNZ & TVNZ Merging, Tech Keeping Ukrainians in Touch, Solar Storms Documentary, and Aspidistra

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Radio Waves: Stories Making Waves in the World of Radio

Because I keep my ear to the waves, as well as receive many tips from others who do the same, I find myself privy to radio-related stories that might interest SWLing Post readers. To that end: Welcome to the SWLing Post’s Radio Waves, a collection of links to interesting stories making waves in the world of radio. Enjoy!

RNZ and TVNZ to merge (RadioInfo)

New Zealand’s Minister for Broadcasting and Media Kris Faafoi has announced the government’s decision to create a new public media entity by merging RNZ and TVNZ.

According to Faafoi, ensuring New Zealanders continue to have access to reliable, trusted, independent information and local content sits at the heart of the decision.

“The public media sector is extremely important to New Zealanders in providing them with high quality, independent, timely and relevant media content,” Faafoi said.

“But we know the media landscape is changing and the sector is having to adapt to increased competition, changing audience demands and ways of accessing media, falling revenue, and new and emerging digital platforms. We need public media which is responsive to these changes and can flourish.

“RNZ and TVNZ are each trying to adjust to the challenges, but our current public media system, and the legislation it’s based on, is focused on radio and television.

“New Zealanders are among some of the most adaptive audiences when it comes to accessing content in different ways; like their phones rather than television and radio, and from internet-based platforms. We must be sure our public media can adapt to those audience changes, as well as other challenges that media will face in the future.”

“The new public media entity will be built on the best of both RNZ and TVNZ, which will initially become subsidiaries of the new organisation. It will continue to provide what existing audiences value, such as RNZ Concert, as well as better reaching those groups who aren’t currently well served; such as our various ethnic communities and cultures,” Faafoi said[…]

Technologies old and new keep Ukrainians in touch with the world (The Economist)

Battery radios and satellite internet both have jobs to do

In communist Eastern Europe a shortwave radio was a vital piece of equipment for anyone wanting to stay ahead of the censors. Stations such as the bbc World Service, Radio Free Europe and Voice of America broadcast news, entertainment and rock-and-roll across the Iron Curtain.

After the cold war ended, shortwave radios gave way to television and the internet, and the broadcasts were wound down. But on March 3rd, in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the bbc announced their return. The World Service has begun nightly news broadcasts into Ukraine and parts of Russia (see map). Continue reading →

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