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The SWLing Post Blog has recently featured a few posts on “Space Weather” & Geomagnetic Storms. As an amateur astronomer, I receive many daily space-related emails in my INBOX right along with the SWLing Post Daily Digest. I thought this might be of interest:
From Spaceweather.com
An unusually wide hole in the sun’s atmosphere is facing Earth and spewing a stream of solar wind toward our planet. Estimated time of arrival: April 9th. Polar geomagnetic unrest and minor G1-class storms are possible when the gaseous material reaches Earth. Visit Spaceweather.com for more information and updates.
Image credit: NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory.
The hole bisects half the solar disk, stretching more than 700,000 km from end to end. This means Earth will be under the influence of the emerging solar wind stream for more than 4 days after it arrives.
A G1-class storm is “Minor”, so I doubt there will be very much “radio” impact – but you gotta admit, a hole that large is interesting nonetheless!
Many thanks to SWLing Post contributor, TomL, who writes:
Regarding the last couple of posts recently about what affects Space Weather (and HF radio communications), this talk last week from Solar scientist Joan Burkepile of the High Altitude Observatory discusses what causes Radiation storms from Coronal Mass Ejections. She makes it interesting from a physics point of view. And as we understand the sun better, we also learn more about how the rest of the universe behaves.
With Solar Minimum right around the corner, sunspot counts are at an almost 10-year low. So it came as a surprise yesterday when a relatively large sunspot emerged near the sun’s eastern limb.
AR2699 has a primary dark core larger than Earth with many smaller magnetic condensations trailing behind it, in all stretching more than 75,000 km across the sun’s surface.
Rare “solar minimum sunspots” are capable of intense explosions just like sunspots during more active phases of the solar cycle.
Per spaceweather.com & NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC):
“A high-speed stream of solar wind is approaching Earth, and NOAA forecasters say there is a 75% chance of polar geomagnetic storms when it arrives during the late hours of Dec. 4th. Periods of moderately-strong G2-class storming on Dec. 4th and 5th could send Northern Lights spilling across the Canadian border into upper-tier US states; affect shortwave radio transmissions at high latitudes; and confuse wildlife that use magnetic cues for navigation.”
The SWPC forecasts G-2 conditions starting at 2100 UT on 04 Dec and lasting through 06 UT on 05 Dec.
Though there is only a 1% chance of this G-2 causing a “radio blackout”, shortwave transmissions at higher latitudes will be affected.
Records kept by people living in Korea, China and Japan in 1770 have revealed evidence for the longest geomagnetic storm in recorded history
Almost 250 years ago, for over two weeks, the skies above parts of Asia lit up in what looked like a burst of fiery red. Those who saw the strange phenomenon kept notes of the event, and now it has been identified as potentially the longest geomagnetic storm ever recorded.
A dim red sky reported to have been observed between the September 16 to 18, 1770 in East Asia was considered one of history’s greatest geomagnetic storms. But now, new materials have come to light suggesting the storm lasted much longer, for nine nights, and covered an area twice as large as originally thought.
A group of Japanese scientists led by Hisashi Hayakawa from Osaka University studied hundreds of historical records dating between September and October 1770, including government records and people’s personal diaries. Using these records, they were able to piece together what happened during the event, and link this to sunspot drawings from the time.[…]
Of course, I’ve read in-depth information about the Carrington Event, but was completely unaware of the 1770 event. I’ve always said the biggest EMP threat will come from our local star. Frankly, it’s just a matter of time. I hope we’re ready!
Many thanks to SWLing Post contributor, Michael Guerin, who shares this article at CNN by Dr. Don Lincoln, a senior physicist at Fermilab and researcher at the Large Hadron Collider:
Earth dodges a cosmic bullet — for now
Solar flares and related phenomena could cause tremendous damage to the Earth’s electric grids, writes Don Lincoln Read the full story
(CNN) Mother Nature has had a hectic past couple of weeks of hurricanes, an earthquake, wildfires and flooding. But while our attention has been turned to these humanitarian crises, Earth ducked a cosmic bullet the likes of which could have crippled human technological civilization.
Over the last week or so, the sun has experienced a series of solar flares, including the most energetic one in a decade. A solar flare occurs when magnetic energy in the vicinity of a sunspot is released, resulting in a bright spot on the sun that takes place over a time scale of perhaps 10 minutes — or even less.
[…]While solar flares can interfere with satellites, an even more dangerous phenomenon is called a coronal mass ejection (or CME). CMEs often accompany a flare and occur when some of the sun’s highly ionized material is ejected into space. Because a CME consists of matter and not the electromagnetic radiation of a flare, it can take a day or even more to travel from the sun to the Earth. Indeed, last week’s flares were accompanied by a CME, but it didn’t hit the Earth with its full fury.
If a CME happens to be aimed directly at Earth, the ionized particles can slam into the magnetic field that surrounds the Earth and distort its shape, a process called a geomagnetic storm. That’s when things can get dangerous. Moving magnetic fields can induce electrical currents on the Earth’s surface and damage equipment.
In 1989, a CME hit the Earth and knocked out power in Quebec and the northeast United States for nine hours. And in 1859, an enormous CME hit the Earth. Called the Carrington Event, after Richard Carrington, who observed and recorded it, this geomagnetic storm caused telegraph pylons and railroad rails to spark, shocked telegraph operators and was responsible for auroras visible at least as far south as Havana, Cuba, with some claims of auroras being observed near the Earth’s equator.
[…]A report by Lloyd’s of London in 2013 estimated that the damage to the US grid from a repeat of the Carrington Event would be in the range of $0.6-$2.3 trillion dollars and would require four to 10 years to repair.
“The total U.S. population at risk of extended power outage from a Carrington-level storm is between 20-40 million, with durations of 16 days to 1-2 years,” the Lloyd’s report said.[…]
Many thanks as well to Mike Hansgen (K8RAT) who also shares the latest space weather news from Tamitha Skov, reiterating how fortunate we were to miss this last barrage from our local star:
One additional note: I’m currently in the process of writing a lengthy article about how to protect your gear from an EMP (Electromagnetic Pulse) emanating from an event like this. In the past two weeks, I’ve had an uptick in inquiries about this, so I thought it best to consult an expert and produce a post. I’ll hopefully have this article published within a week or so. I’ll post it with the tag: EMP.
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